Election returns: What to watch for

The Unablogger

The Unablogger

What happens early will probably foretell results for the rest of the night.

The first significant result will be Kentucky. A McConnell win is expected, so if he loses, so have Republicans nationally.

The next significant poll closings (6 p.m. Central) are New Hampshire, Georgia and Virginia. If Michelle Nunn wins Georgia outright without a runoff, Republican hopes for the senate are dashed. Most likely outcome there is a Republican lead below 50%, with final decision deferred until January 6, after Congress convenes.

Good signals for Republicans in these early states include: David Perdue winning Georgia outright without a runoff or a Scott Brown win over Jean Shaheen. A Republican win in the Virginia senate seat would signal a huge Republican wave.

Also, see if the mainstream media even mentions the solid reelection of black South Carolina Republican Sen. Tim Scott.

6:30 poll closings include West Virginia and North Carolina. Republican failure to capture the Democrat seat in West Virginia probably means the Democrats keep the senate, because West Virginia is supposed to be “in the bag” for Republicans. Republican Thom Tillis upsetting Sen. Kay Hagan in North Carolina would pretty much assure Republican control of the Senate with a cushion.

Republican senate wins in both New Hampshire and North Carolina probably foreshadow a 10-seat Republican pickup on the night.

Everything else is later. The probable Republican takeover of the Alaska seat probably won’t be confirmed until Wednesday morning.

If isolated states here and there (e.g., Colorado) go Democratic against the wave, it may be a sign of a stolen election, as suggested by my previous post.

Here’s the full list of when the polls close in each state. NOTE: All times are listed in Central Time. States designated by * have multiple closing times, as they include more than one time zone.

5 p.m.
Indiana*
Kentucky*

6 p.m.
Florida*
Georgia
Indiana*
Kentucky*
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia

6:30 p.m.
North Carolina
Ohio
West Virginia

7 p.m.
Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida*
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan*
Mississippi
Missouri
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Dakota*
Tennessee
Texas*
Washington, D.C.

7:30 p.m.
Arkansas

8 p.m.
Arizona
Colorado
Kansas*
Louisiana
Michigan*
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota*
South Dakota*
Texas*
Wisconsin
Wyoming

9 p.m.
Idaho*
Iowa
Kansas*
Montana
Nevada
North Dakota*
Oregon*
Utah

10 p.m.
California
Hawaii
Idaho*
North Dakota*
Oregon*
Washington

11 p.m.
Alaska*

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